Screening tool predicts dementia with 80% accuracy using 11 risk factors.
Screening tool predicts dementia with 80% accuracy using 11 risk factors.
Predicting Dementia Onset: New Risk Score Provides Hope for Early Detection
Could a new risk score help identify who is most likely to develop dementia with accuracy 14 years ahead of onset? Image credit: Tatiana Maksimova/Getty Images.
Millions of people worldwide are currently living with dementia, a progressive neurodegenerative condition that affects memory and cognitive skills. With no cure for dementia currently available, preventive strategies are crucial in reducing its impact on overall health and quality of life. Recent research suggests that up to 40% of dementia cases could be prevented by addressing 12 key risk factors such as low education levels, smoking, and hypertension[^1^].
While several prognostic models exist to predict dementia risk, they often have significant limitations. For instance, a 2019 systematic review of 61 dementia risk scores found that only eight had been validated by external samples, and even those that were validated often had poor and inconsistent performance[^1^]. Additionally, most developmental cohorts are from North America, which raises questions about the generalizability of these risk scores to other populations[^1^].
The need for externally validated risk scores that include diverse populations is crucial in identifying dementia risk and improving dementia prognosis[^1^]. In a promising development, researchers have recently developed a dementia risk score consisting of 11 key factors that can predict up to 80% of dementia cases 14 years before onset. They named it the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score (UKBDRS)[^1^].
The 11 Key Dementia Risk Factors
For their study, researchers analyzed healthcare data from the UK Biobank, which included 220,762 individuals with an average age of 60. They followed the participants for 14 years and identified 11 risk factors strongly associated with dementia risk[^1^]:
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- Age
- Education level
- Parental history of dementia
- Material deprivation or poverty
- History of diabetes
- Stroke
- Depression
- Hypertension (high blood pressure)
- High cholesterol
- Living alone
- Being male
To validate the reliability of these risk factors, the researchers tested the UKBDRS on both the remaining 20% of the UK Biobank data and external data from the Whitehall II study, which included 2,934 British civil servants. The results were impressive, with the UKBDRS accurately predicting dementia incidence in 80% of individuals from the UK Biobank sample and 77% of cases in the UK Whitehall II study[^1^].
The Surprising Link Between Being Male and Dementia Risk
Traditionally, it has been believed that women are at a greater risk for Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia. However, the study suggests that certain lifestyle factors more common among men, such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and occupational exposures to environmental toxins, may contribute to their higher dementia risk[^1^].
Medical experts have also highlighted that being male may increase dementia risk due to higher cardiovascular risk and lower likelihood of seeking medical assistance[^1^].
Psychosocial Variables and Dementia Risk
Psychosocial variables like material deprivation and living alone may also increase dementia risk. These factors can impact brain health indirectly by affecting access to healthcare and activities that promote cardiovascular and brain health, as well as contributing to chronic stress, which has a direct effect on the brain over time[^1^]. Chronic stress can lead to neurotoxic effects and changes in gene expression, which can negatively impact brain function[^1^].
Limitations and the Way Forward
The study has been praised for its careful methodology and inclusion of a rich and unique cohort. However, some limitations should be considered. The lack of diagnoses using gold-standard clinical processes or assessments, and major differences between study samples in terms of available hospital records and outcome measures, have been identified as potential limitations[^1^].
Despite these limitations, the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score (UKBDRS) shows promise as an initial screening tool. High-risk individuals identified by the score can undergo additional screenings such as cognitive testing or genetic screening. Moreover, the tool can help individuals and healthcare providers target and modify health behaviors before dementia onset, focusing on prevention since no cure for dementia currently exists[^1^].
In conclusion, the development of the UKBDRS provides hope for early detection and intervention in dementia cases. By addressing 11 key risk factors, this new risk score can predict up to 80% of dementia cases 14 years in advance. Its accurate prediction rates rival those of APOE testing, a genetic biomarker for dementia. However, further research and validation are needed to explore the full potential and applicability of this risk score across diverse populations. Nevertheless, its potential benefits in screening and prevention make it a significant step forward in the fight against dementia[^1^].
