COVID Time to Pay Attention Again

COVID Time to Pay Attention Again

The Summer Surge: A Closer Look at the New COVID Variant and Rising Hospitalization Numbers

Published: Aug. 10, 2023

It has been over three years since the COVID-19 pandemic turned the world upside down. While most Americans have settled back into their pre-pandemic lifestyles, there are signs of a potential summer surge. A new dominant variant, along with rising hospitalization numbers, has caught the attention of health experts and the public alike.

The Emergence of EG.5: Eris, the New Omicron Subvariant

Since April, a new variant of COVID-19, known as EG.5 from the Omicron family, has been on the rise in the United States. Recent data from the CDC shows that EG.5 now accounts for 17% of all cases, up from 7.5% in the first week of July¹.

EG.5, affectionately nicknamed “Eris” by health trackers, is closely related to its parent strain, XBB.1.9.2. While it has one extra spike mutation, there is no significant difference in the severity of illness or symptoms between Eris and the previous strains².

Despite the growing prevalence of EG.5, experts have not established a direct link between this new variant and the increase in hospital admissions. Health professionals, like William Schaffner, MD, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, assure us that these are relatively minor mutations and not a cause for panic³.

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So, should we be concerned about EG.5? Not necessarily. Schaffner prefers to call the rise in cases an “uptick” rather than a “surge.” While the numbers are lower compared to last year’s summer surge, experts still urge people to stay vigilant and monitor changes in the virus⁴.

The Current State of COVID-19 Hospitalizations

COVID-related hospitalization rates have experienced a significant 12.5% increase in the past week, marking the most significant uptick since December⁵. However, this rise in hospitalizations does not necessarily indicate a greater severity of illness associated with EG.5.

Experts attribute the recent increase in COVID cases to factors such as travel, socializing, and a decline in mask-wearing⁶. Anne Liu, MD, an allergy, immunology, and infectious disease specialist at Stanford University, explains that the existing level of immunity from vaccinations and prior infections has limited the overall case severity during this summer wave⁷.

While the official CDC COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review is no longer updated, the agency continues to track cases, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and deaths in various ways⁸. As of the most recent report, hospitalizations remain relatively low compared to the previous year⁹.

Other Metrics Indicating an Uptick in COVID-19 Cases

Various metrics highlight the ongoing increase in COVID-19 cases across the United States:

• The rate of positive COVID diagnoses following ER visits has more than doubled since June 19, indicating an increased transmission of the virus¹⁰.
• The percentage of positive COVID test results has risen steadily since June 10, reaching 8.9% on July 29¹¹.
• Despite the uptick in cases, the weekly percentage of deaths related to COVID-19 remains low at 1%, compared to the peak of 5.8% in July 2022¹².

These numbers provide essential insights into the current state of the pandemic and help healthcare professionals monitor potential outbreaks or hotspots of SARS-CoV-2¹³.

The Role of New COVID Vaccines in Lowering Hospitalization Rates

While the situation may seem concerning, experts remain cautiously optimistic about the effectiveness of COVID vaccines in preventing severe illness associated with the virus¹⁴.

As the development of a new Omicron vaccine and boosters progresses, experts predict a lower risk of hospitalization this coming winter. Dean Winslow, MD, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, advises that everyone should get the Omicron booster once it becomes available¹⁵.

However, it’s important to remember that COVID-19 will be with us for the foreseeable future. While the newer Omicron subvariants tend to cause milder symptoms, it’s crucial to get tested and initiate treatment early, especially for older individuals or those at higher risk for severe disease¹⁶.

The Road Ahead: Looking Towards Winter

There is hope that the new vaccines will help us avoid hospitalizations during the upcoming winter season. William Schaffner anticipates the availability of these vaccines as early as the end of September¹⁷.

However, Schaffner cautions that unforeseen circumstances, such as the emergence of a new variant, could alter these predictions¹⁸. The guidance on COVID shots will be based on ongoing studies, and it would be prudent for everyone to plan on getting the flu shot in September¹⁹.

Stay Alert and Stay Realistic

In this uncertain landscape, cautious optimism and vigilance are key. It’s advisable for everyone, especially those at higher risk, to remain aware of the ongoing developments and make informed decisions about participating in activities that may pose a risk of contracting COVID-19²⁰.

While respiratory virus vaccines, including those for the flu and COVID-19, work best at preventing severe illness, they may not completely prevent milder infections²¹. It’s essential to maintain a realistic perspective and manage our expectations as we navigate the ongoing challenges of the pandemic.

By staying informed, following public health guidelines, and getting vaccinated, we can together overcome the obstacles posed by new variants like EG.5 and mitigate the impact of future surges.

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